Spain's traditional parties set to suffer in Andalusia: Poll

 

Spain's traditional 'big two' parties - the right wing Partido Popular and the PSOE - both look certain to suffer as a result of the growth in popularity of the recently formed political parties Podemos and Ciudadanos.

That is the conclusion of an opinion poll published in the El Pais newspaper on Sunday just three weeks before the elections for the Andalusian regional parliament on March 22.

The region in the south of Spain has traditionally been a PSOE stronghold and they have been governing in a coalition with the United Left (IU) until now.

However, according to the poll compiled by Metroscope the political balance looks certain to change and if the PSOE want to maintain power, they will once again need to form pacts as their share of the vote falls from 39.5% in the 2012 elections to 34.6% now.

The PP, who are currently the main opposition force in Andalusia, will suffer a humiliating setback with their share of the vote crashing from 40.7%, to just 22.7%, their lowest ever showing in the region since 1990.

Meanwhile IU see their vote share drop from 11.3 to 6.8%.

The political climate has been changed by the arrival on the scene of Podemos. Pablo Iglesias' left wing formation is predicted to win 16.7% of votes, while Ciudadanos, which follows a broadly center-right political line and has expanded onto the national scene in recent months following its formation in the Catalan region, would win 11% of the vote.

The party, which is led by Albert Rivera has hit the political base of the PP, winning the support of many middle class people who have suffered as a result of the economic reforms of PM, Mariano Rajoy.

That would leave Andalusia with a hung parliament, with the PSOE predicted to win between 40-44 seats in the 109 seat assembly, the PP taking between 27-31, Podemos 18-22, Ciudadanos 8-12 and IU between 6-9.

As a result the PSOE could no longer govern by pacting with just IU, while a pact between the PP and Ciudadanos would also need a third partner in order to govern. With local and regional elections scheduled for May and the general elections due in November, the pacts which are eventually produced in Andalusia will be highly significant for the future of Spanish politics.

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