"No" vote would win at Catalan referendum by a point: new poll

 

If a legal referendum on self-rule were to be held in Catalonia today, ‘no' would win over ‘yes' by one point, according to the latest poll by the Catalan Opinion Study Center (CEO), which is funded by the Catalan government.

The survey, which was released on Friday, shows 47.8% opposition to independence compared with 46.7% support for a Catalan republic.

Despite the slight unionist victory, the gap between both camps has narrowed significantly since June, when a similar survey showed a seven-point lead by detractors of a break from Spain.

The poll was conducted between October 5 and 27, after the regional election that was won by the separatist coalition Junts pel Sí, but before the approval this week of a controversial motion declaring the start of the breakaway process.

Support for complete secession grew to 41.1%, up from 37.6% in June and in detriment of alternative formulas like a loose state model or increased powers of self-rule without actual independence.

This scenario theoretically benefits CUP, the small anti-capitalist party that holds the key to power in the region with its 10 deputies. If new elections are held in March as a result of ongoing disagreement over the new Catalan premier, the CUP could raise its representation to 14 or even 16 deputies in the Catalan parliament.

The study also shows that 37% of Catalans feel the political situation will improve within a year, while 16% hink it will get worse and 30% see no significant changes on the horizon.

Read the timeline of Catalonia's bid for independence by clicking the link > HERE <