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Spanish Population to Fall by 1 Million by 2020

Mon 10th Oct 2011

Spain's National Institute of Statistics (INE) have published a report today which shows how the Spanish population is predicted to fall by over 1 million people (1.23%) over the next decade due to a declining birth rate, falling immigration and increasing emigration.

The data estimates that from this year onwards the migratory balance will be negative, as the estimated 450,000 new immigrants coming into the country will be offset by 580,850 Spaniards leaving to start a new life in other countries.

Perhaps more worryingly, by the end of the decade deaths are expected to outnumber births, as demographic growth figures are in minus figures for the first time in 2011 after a decade which has seen a surge in population growth.

This will result in a decline in the Spanish population is therefore, which is expected to fall to 45.6 million by 2021, which will see 18.1% fewer births and 9.7% more deaths than 2011.

The INE also forecasts how 130,850 more people will have emigrated from Spain in 2011 than will have arrived as immigrants, and if this trend is to continue then the negative balance will reach 945,663 by 2020.

The declining rate of birth will also have a negative effect on the population, as the number of children being born continues to fall whilst the death rate keeps rising as the population gets older. The INE predicts that between 2011 and 2020 in the region of 4.4 million babies will be born, 4.7% fewer than during the previous decade. If this trend continues, 396,417 children will be born in 2020, 18.1% fewer than in 2010.

With the population getting increasingly older, there is expected to be a total of 4.1 million deaths over the coming decade, an increase of 7.8% on the past decade. Therefore, in 2020 there will be 415,386 deaths (9.7% more than in 2010) despite the fact that life expectancy will have increased a couple of years by then to an average of 80.9 for men and 86.3 for women.

By the year 2020 there will be 1.4 million more people over the age of 64 living in Spain than there are now, an increase of 17.8%, meaning that the dependency rate (the proportion of people of working age in the population compared with children under 16 and those over 64) will increase to 57.3% in 2021 : This means that for each person of working age in Spain, there will be six people who are either retired or at school.

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